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Predicting today’s stock market close

October 29, 2009

A distinguished theoretical physicist  sought Rocky’s counsel for predicting today’s Dow Jones closing price. In addition to unlocking the secrets of the universe, this physicist seeks to unlock the prize in a “Guess the Dow Jones” contest.  (The winner receives the actual closing price in dollars.)

Rocky usually leaves such precise speculations to Trophy Wife, as Rocky considers  “good fundamental analysis”  to be successfully picking a pair of matching socks.  (Or at least they seem to match in the darkness of dawn.)

Rocky realized that the physicist’s challenge was too big for his HP-45 Calculator, so he borrowed Virgil Starkwell’s X-22 computer, and fired it up for the first time in 40 years…

The X-22 generated four possible closing prices:

[Disclosure: As the price dispersion demonstrates, Rocky does not provide investment advice. However, readers are encouraged to learn more about the legendary X-22 computer by watching the YouTube video embedded below. Warren Buffett will probably enjoy this approach too.]


  1. masteroftheuniverse
    October 29, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    The numbers game used to use the last 3 numbers of the close for their daily number. They stopped doing that when someone paid off a clerk at the NYSE to put in a predetermined last three digits at the close. The gang who did this took the numbers racket for a few million dollars. Nice way of thinking outside the box to determine a positive outcome.

  2. October 29, 2009 at 4:42 pm

    The X-22 came within 7.17 points of the actual close. Hmmm!!

  3. October 29, 2009 at 7:19 pm

    Totally hilarious! One of your best!

  4. fatbear
    October 30, 2009 at 12:12 am

    Ah, Rocky, Rocky – you don’t do numbers?? how short is your memory!! I distinctly remember your last prediction
    with your payoff date coming up…

  5. October 30, 2009 at 8:15 am

    @Fatbear- Rocky politely suggests that you re-read that post … while standing on your head. Everything will then become clear and accurate!

  6. ld
    October 30, 2009 at 9:18 am

    LOL!!! Great post!

  7. Sam
    October 30, 2009 at 9:29 am

    Can you do today for the S&P 500 futures? Since the beginning of the year my calculator has been very broken and I need a pay check.

  8. October 30, 2009 at 9:43 am

    @Sam- Unfortunately, the X-22 overheated yesterday and burned out some vacuum tubes. (The X-22 has no transistors. But it does have plenty of moths.)

    Rocky’s vacuum tube purveyor went out of business in 1973, so he’s currently bidding on ebay for some replacements. While he’s bidding, he passes the time playing the online game, “Can you guess the computer?” … see: http://www.pbs.org/nerds/game.html

  9. October 30, 2009 at 8:34 pm

    The problem is elementary my dear Rocky…you need to use a more robust computer! May I suggest a Commodore 128? Unrivaled in its day….

  10. November 14, 2009 at 11:59 am

    I like how your blog is laid out. I have bookmark this and look forward to seeing more.

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