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Manhattan weather forecast for August 20, 2050

August 20, 2009

fanRocky just checked this weekend’s weather forecast, and discovered a forecast for 41 years in the future.

Bloomberg news reports that “Climate Central” released their 2050 weather forecast for the Big Apple. Using “established scientific methods,” Climate Central predicts that in 2050, New York’s August will be substantially hotter than Atlanta’s current temperature.

For the Bloomberg story, click here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aV8f4NsP6hos
For the Climate Central website, click here:
http://www.climatecentral.org/other/august-heat/

Several years ago, Rocky’s broker called him with an offering of General Motors 40-year bonds, which would “resolve GM’s pension liabilities once-and-for-all.” Rocky’s response was a polite “no, thank you.” Rocky thinks beach-goers should treat Climate Central’s forecast with similar skepticism.

In particular, he notes that “established science” also predicts that the quarter-mile-wide Asteroid “Apophis” may collide with earth in 2036. If this happens, it will release 100,000 times more energy than the Hiroshima nuclear blast, and probably put the earth into another ice age. See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/dec/07/spaceexploration.research

[Disclosure: The General Motors 7.375% of May 2049 are in default.   On matters of weather, Rocky always keeps an umbrella, water bottle, and reflective thermal blanket in the trunk of his car. So he’s fully hedged]

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  1. masteroftheuniverse
    August 20, 2009 at 4:45 pm

    Having spent too much time in Minneapolis, I think these guys are doing it right.
    http://www.m4gw.com:2005/m4gw/home.html

    That long term forecast might be nice, but what do I wear tomorrow when I get up there, and should I bring an umbrella. The nice umbrella that I got at Battery Park when I was your guest is safely ensconced over at my friend’s house. I still wear the watch.

    Jeff

  2. August 20, 2009 at 5:33 pm

    Jeff: Interesting website, but the authors may be facing death threats from snow tire manufacturers….

    The NY metro area just had the coldest July in many many years. But right now news reports suggest it feels like West Palm Beach (not Palm Beach) right after a mid-summer rain shower. Evidently, there’s a bad-air smog/ozone alert on top of the heat and humidity.

    Rocky only ventures into Manhattan for BBQ, when Trophy Wife drags him, or when he’s served with a subpoena to appear in Federal Court. Where he lives, the air is crisp, the sun is bright, the grass is green, the birds are singing, and all’s right with the world. At least when the electricity works, that is.

  3. ld
    August 20, 2009 at 7:29 pm

    Rocky – I didn’t see a mention of how many grams the kilogram will be when New York and Atlanta have the same weather in 2050? http://www.wbur.org/news/npr/112003322

  4. August 20, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    LD: That’s a great story! Thanks!
    I’ve noticed that my clothes have been getting “smaller” over the years. Perhaps it is the same natural phenomenon at work???

  5. August 20, 2009 at 9:34 pm

    Those scientists that do precision measurements (like in ld’s comment) are intense. Spending 20+ years to get another digit of precision is par for the course. I look forward to seeing them in a stare down with some bad ass monks.

  6. August 23, 2009 at 9:23 am

    That was quite the story about the kilogram. It states, the speed of light is always constant. Are they sure about that? I personally have spent many sleepless seconds worrying about the precision of time. http://atomtime.com allows you to coordinate the time on your computer with an atomic clock in Boulder, Colorado. But what if the clock is wrong? What if it has sped up and it’s already 2050, only we don’t know it? Rocky needs to add sunglasses to his repertoire. They are essential in Florida (and when NYC becomes like Florida)where you often find you need them and your umbrella at the same time.

  7. August 23, 2009 at 11:35 am

    I don’t care about 40+ years into the future. Just tell me if it’s *really* going to rain tomorrow! And which way that hurricane’s *really* headed.

    Can Rocky shed light on the true meaning of: 50% chance of rain?

    Some say it means that 50% of the area will see rain, but which 50% is unknown. Some say it means that there is only 50% that any area will see rain. But when you think about probability, and we poker players are quite interested in that, then both interpretations are correct.

  8. August 25, 2009 at 8:16 pm

    Spencercourt: If you carry an umbrella, it will not rain tomorrow. However, if you forget your umbrella, it will rain. You can take your probability and statistics and throw them out the window. Da facts are da facts.

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